Advancing short-term solar irradiance forecasting accuracy through a hybrid deep learning approach with Bayesian optimization

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27240%2F24%3A10255370" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27240/24:10255370 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61989100:27730/24:10255370

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123024007163" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123024007163</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102461" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102461</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Advancing short-term solar irradiance forecasting accuracy through a hybrid deep learning approach with Bayesian optimization

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The optimization of solar energy integration into the power grid relies heavily on accurate forecasting of solar irradiance. In this study, a new approach for short-term solar irradiance forecasting is introduced. This method combines Bayesian Optimized Attention-Dilated Long Short-Term Memory and Savitzky-Golay filtering. The methodology is implemented to analyze data obtained from a solar irradiance probe situated in Douala, Cameroon. Initially, the unprocessed data is augmented by integrating distinctive solar irradiation variables, and the Savitzky-Golay filter with Bayesian Optimization is used to enhance its quality. Subsequently, multiple deep learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, Artificial Neural Networks, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory with Additive Attention Mechanism, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory with Additive Attention Mechanism and Dilated Convolutional layers, are trained and evaluated. Out of all the models considered, the proposed approach, which combines the attention mechanism and dilated convolutional layers, demonstrates exceptional performance with the best convergence and accuracy in forecasting. Bayesian Optimization is further utilized to fine -tune the polynomial and window size of the Savitzky-Golay filter and optimize the hyperparameters of the deep learning models. The results show a Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.6564, a Normalized Root Mean Square Error of 0.2250, and a Root Mean Square Error of 22.9445, surpassing previous studies in the literature. Empirical findings highlight the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in enhancing the accuracy of short-term solar irradiance forecasting. This research contributes to the field by introducing novel data pre-processing techniques, a hybrid deep learning architecture, and the development of a benchmark dataset. These advancements benefit both researchers and solar plant managers, improving solar irradiance forecasting capabilities.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Advancing short-term solar irradiance forecasting accuracy through a hybrid deep learning approach with Bayesian optimization

Popis výsledku anglicky

The optimization of solar energy integration into the power grid relies heavily on accurate forecasting of solar irradiance. In this study, a new approach for short-term solar irradiance forecasting is introduced. This method combines Bayesian Optimized Attention-Dilated Long Short-Term Memory and Savitzky-Golay filtering. The methodology is implemented to analyze data obtained from a solar irradiance probe situated in Douala, Cameroon. Initially, the unprocessed data is augmented by integrating distinctive solar irradiation variables, and the Savitzky-Golay filter with Bayesian Optimization is used to enhance its quality. Subsequently, multiple deep learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, Artificial Neural Networks, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory with Additive Attention Mechanism, and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory with Additive Attention Mechanism and Dilated Convolutional layers, are trained and evaluated. Out of all the models considered, the proposed approach, which combines the attention mechanism and dilated convolutional layers, demonstrates exceptional performance with the best convergence and accuracy in forecasting. Bayesian Optimization is further utilized to fine -tune the polynomial and window size of the Savitzky-Golay filter and optimize the hyperparameters of the deep learning models. The results show a Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.6564, a Normalized Root Mean Square Error of 0.2250, and a Root Mean Square Error of 22.9445, surpassing previous studies in the literature. Empirical findings highlight the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in enhancing the accuracy of short-term solar irradiance forecasting. This research contributes to the field by introducing novel data pre-processing techniques, a hybrid deep learning architecture, and the development of a benchmark dataset. These advancements benefit both researchers and solar plant managers, improving solar irradiance forecasting capabilities.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

20200 - Electrical engineering, Electronic engineering, Information engineering

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/TN02000025" target="_blank" >TN02000025: Národní centrum pro energetiku II</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Results in Engineering

ISSN

2590-1230

e-ISSN

2590-1230

Svazek periodika

23

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

September 2024

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

nestránkováno

Kód UT WoS článku

001261815400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85196787654