Artificial intelligence in predicting the bankruptcy of non-financial corporations
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28120%2F22%3A63551978" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28120/22:63551978 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/oc/article/view/2149" target="_blank" >http://economic-research.pl/Journals/index.php/oc/article/view/2149</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/oc.2022.035" target="_blank" >10.24136/oc.2022.035</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Artificial intelligence in predicting the bankruptcy of non-financial corporations
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
Research background: In a modern economy, full of complexities, ensuring a business' financial stability, and increasing its financial performance and competitiveness, has become especially difficult. Then, monitoring the company's financial situation and predicting its future development becomes important. Assessing the financial health of business entities using various models is an important area in not only scientific research, but also business practice.Purpose of the article: This study aims to predict the bankruptcy of companies in the engineering and automotive industries of the Slovak Republic using a multilayer neural network and logistic regression. Importantly, we develop a novel an early warning model for the Slovak engineering and automotive industries, which can be applied in countries with undeveloped capital markets.Methods: Data on the financial ratios of 2,384 companies were used. We used a logistic regression to analyse the data for the year 2019 and designed a logistic model. Meanwhile, the data for the years 2018 and 2019 were analysed using the neural network. In the prediction model, we analysed the predictive performance of several combinations of factors based on the industry sector, use of the scaling technique, activation function, and ratio of the sample distribution to the test and training parts.Findings & value added: The financial indicators ROS, QR, NWC/A, and PC/S reduce the likelihood of bankruptcy. Regarding the value of this work, we constructed an optimal network for the automotive and engineering industries using nine financial indicators on the input layer in combination with one hidden layer. Moreover, we developed a novel prediction model for bankruptcy using six of these indicators. Almost all sampled industries are privatised, and most companies are foreign owned. Hence, international companies as well as researchers can apply our models to understand their financial health and sustainability. Moreover, they can conduct comparative analyses of their own model with ours to reveal areas of model improvements.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Artificial intelligence in predicting the bankruptcy of non-financial corporations
Popis výsledku anglicky
Research background: In a modern economy, full of complexities, ensuring a business' financial stability, and increasing its financial performance and competitiveness, has become especially difficult. Then, monitoring the company's financial situation and predicting its future development becomes important. Assessing the financial health of business entities using various models is an important area in not only scientific research, but also business practice.Purpose of the article: This study aims to predict the bankruptcy of companies in the engineering and automotive industries of the Slovak Republic using a multilayer neural network and logistic regression. Importantly, we develop a novel an early warning model for the Slovak engineering and automotive industries, which can be applied in countries with undeveloped capital markets.Methods: Data on the financial ratios of 2,384 companies were used. We used a logistic regression to analyse the data for the year 2019 and designed a logistic model. Meanwhile, the data for the years 2018 and 2019 were analysed using the neural network. In the prediction model, we analysed the predictive performance of several combinations of factors based on the industry sector, use of the scaling technique, activation function, and ratio of the sample distribution to the test and training parts.Findings & value added: The financial indicators ROS, QR, NWC/A, and PC/S reduce the likelihood of bankruptcy. Regarding the value of this work, we constructed an optimal network for the automotive and engineering industries using nine financial indicators on the input layer in combination with one hidden layer. Moreover, we developed a novel prediction model for bankruptcy using six of these indicators. Almost all sampled industries are privatised, and most companies are foreign owned. Hence, international companies as well as researchers can apply our models to understand their financial health and sustainability. Moreover, they can conduct comparative analyses of their own model with ours to reveal areas of model improvements.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
50201 - Economic Theory
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
—
Návaznosti
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2022
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Oeconomia Copernicana
ISSN
2083-1277
e-ISSN
2353-1827
Svazek periodika
13
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
4
Stát vydavatele periodika
PL - Polská republika
Počet stran výsledku
37
Strana od-do
"1215 "- 1251
Kód UT WoS článku
000907675800008
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85147224931